Inflation or Recession? That is the question.

Published on Jul 29, 2022

Inflation or Recession? That is the question.

As with most things in life, the answer is typically not black or white, but usually some shade of gray. We have written extensively over the past few months of the conundrum in the marketplace given that so much of the data remains contradictory.

There are many reasons to be concerned about recessionary pressures, including an aggressive Fed that is increasing overnight rates, which effectively increases the cost of money and therefore reduces demand for economic activity. However, we continue to see a resilient consumer, strong corporate balance sheets, and an employment environment that exudes strength. Moreover, the markets are a forward-looking discount mechanism. This begs the question of what is already priced into the equation. We dive into this and more in our latest market update.


Read the full Private Bank Market Update – July 2022


Michael Zaremsky is the Head of U.S. Private Banking at Valley Bank. You can reach him at 212-407-4372 or by email at


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