Capital markets began the new year in stark contrast to 2022. The historically difficult performance across equity and fixed income was met with a new vision of optimism which began in the 4th quarter.
We are still a long way from erasing last year’s losses, while remaining a long way from definitively declaring that the bear market is over and a new bull has begun. However, it does seem clear that we have entered a new environment as the consensus view of economists believes peak inflation is in the rear-view mirror and that we are close to the peak interest rate for this hiking cycle. Differences of opinion remain regarding the terminal rate for the cycle and for how long rates remain elevated, but we have clearly moved to the later innings of the battle.
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Michael Zaremsky is the Head of U.S. Private Banking at Valley Bank.
You can reach him at 212-407-4372 or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org